The Dash is back with the latest on Tom Brady's contract talks, high hopes in Nebraska, and drinking problems in South Bend.
Kicking it off in Tennessee, the Vols have plenty of holes to fill this season, and with a new coach at the helm in Derek Dooley, there are not many experts predicting big things from Tennessee in the SEC. Many of Lane Kiffin's recruits have flamed out including highly touted studs such as Bryce Brown (transfer) and Nu'Keese Richardson (left school after arrest for armed robbery) leaving holes to fill. Rocky Top Talk takes a look at Tauren Poole's ability to be a difference maker for the undermanned Vols.
In Lincoln, hope is far more plentiful than in Knoxville, as the Cornhuskers are expecting a big season from Bo Pelini's boys. In a farewell tour of the Big 12, the Huskers expect big results despite the loss of Ndamukong Suh. It seems that this could be the year for the Huskers to challenge for a BCS bowl as both Texas and Oklahoma lost their stud quarterbacks to the NFL, leaving the Big 12 wide open. Corn Nation takes a peek at Big 12 pre-season awards as they relate to Nebraska.
New head coach Brian Kelly already has his hands full in South Bend, with underage drinking arrests for eight football players including junior Nate Montana (son of Joe Montana). Kelly gets a taste of the national media spotlight surrounding ND, even in these seemingly tame summer months. While Montana may have big name cache, it's Dayne Crist who will be taking over the reins for the Irish this fall. Expect Crist to put up some gaudy numbers, as Brian Kelly's spread offense is known for rolling up yards and points. Just look at Dan Lefevour at Central Michigan and Tony Pike at Cincinnati as examples, and neither of those two came into school with the hype of Crist.
In NFL news, the Packers are expected to turn last year's playoff appearance into a Super Bowl run this season. Aaron Rodgers has taken his spot amongst the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but it is the defense that will be crucial. At linebacker the Packers have the consistently solid Nick Barnett along with rookie sensation Clay Matthews. The forgotten man seems to be AJ Hawk. Hawk has been decent during his time in the NFL, but coming out of Ohio State, stardom was expected as Hawk racked up tackles at a startling rate. CheeseheadTV has the analysis of the inside linebackers in Green Bay, breaking down the best and worse case scenarios for each player.
Reports out of New England indicate that talks between the Patriots and Tom Brady are proceeding efficiently and a deal seems likely. While it seemed unlikely that Brady would ever end up anywhere else, it is clearly reassuring for Pats fans to know that #12 seems to be on his way to re-signing. While there are no specifics on any contract at this point, the Patriots seem to be willing to ink a long term deal despite the upcoming collective bargaining issues. Its also comforting for many to understand that Brady is not just another player, and getting locked up in contract negotiations with him is not the same as entering negotiation battles with Logan Mankins.
We were hoping to have some photos from a Cape Cod League game today, but a Monday of rain in Bourne conspired to make the field unplayable. Instead we'll look at someone who has been the topic of some conversation at the MSP offices: Tim Wakefield.
Wakefield seems in imminent danger of losing his spot in the rotation with Buchholz and (hopefully) Beckett slated to return soon. There has even been speculation at MSP that if Tim Wakefield weren't Tim Wakefield he may have already been DFA'd. (Insert required, "We love Tim Wakefield and all he has done for the Sox" disclaimer.)
Another up and down outing last night sums up a frustrating year for the knuckleballer pretty well, as he allowed 4 runs in the third inning before settling down and retiring the last 11 batters he faced. One of the great things about Wake, though, is that every season he seems good for at least one fairly extended stretch of great pitching. The best example was during his first year with the Sox:
May 27 to Aug 13, 1995: 17 GS, 14-1, 131.0 IP, 98 H, 24 ER, 79K, 37 BB, 1.65 ERA
But, even as he's aged, he still pulls together 7-10 starts where he helps anchor the rotation, and even had two of those stretches last year:
May 28 to Jul 1, 2006: 7 GS, 3-2, 45.2 IP, 38 H, 15 ER, 32 K, 10 BB, 2.96 ERA
Apr 6 to May 10, 2007: 7 GS, 4-3, 45.1 IP, 31 H, 9 ER, 26 K, 19 BB, 1.79 ERA
May 28 to Jul 20, 2008: 10 GS, 3-4, 70.1 IP, 45 H, 19 ER, 49 K, 17 BB, 2.43 ERA
Apr 10 to May 7, 2009: 6 GS, 4-1, 40.0 IP, 27 H, 13 ER, 25 K, 18 BB, 2.93 ERA
Jun 10 to Aug 26, 2009: 7 GS, 4-0, 45.2 IP, 52 H, 18 ER, 23 K, 7 BB, 3.55 ERA
Obviously, that stretch hasn't come in 2010, yet. And as he quickly approaches age 44 (on August 2), it's fair to wonder whether it will.
In an ideal world that stretch will happen when Wake moves to the bullpen, either later this week or soon after. With the 'pen famously struggling to find live arms beyond Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon, Wakefield could solve a lot of problems. If he can put together even 30 solid innings to end the year it could keep the Sox in a lot of games, and in the playoff hunt. And his ability to go multiple innings could be critical if the Sox aren't able to bolster the bullpen at the trade deadline.
We're not counting on anything, but a resurgence certainly wouldn't be totally surprising given Wakefield's history. It wouldn't get him to Roger Clemens's and Cy Young's team record of 192 wins, but it would be a satisfying way to conclude a tough year.
We're back for another exciting forty yards of football links. One thing I would like to clear up before we get started: Terrell Owns will under no circumstances be signing with the New England Patriots. The ESPN fueled rumor started from a Boston based hip-hop radio station's morning show interview with Owens, where he indicated that he would have no problem signing with the Pats. ESPN took the story and ran with it, so much so, that I was stuck listening to Tedy Brushci's analysis of the situation on SportsCenter last night. I suppose these are the type of far-fetched rumors happen during the dog days of the NFL summer. Now on to the Dash.
Every season players emerge from the depths of the depth chart to materialize into big time playmakers, or at least solid contributors. Players like Darrelle Revis jumped from an unheralded first-round rookie in 2008 to shutdown corner and landlord of "Revis Island" in 2009. Determining which players will break out presents quite a challenge, yet Bill Barnwell from Football Outsiders takes on that lofty task. The article requires insider status to read but a few names that seem to pop out as possible breakout players include Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, Ravens cornerback LarDarius Webb, and Saints backup quarterback Chase Daniel. Daniel is certainly an intriguing choice, seeing as most Saints fans would hope that he never sees the field as Brees's backup, but he does seem to fit the Brees mold rather well should the opportunity present itself. Daniel's height and lack of elite arm strength should be offset by the pinpoint accuracy he displayed in college.
The insane contracts that NFL rookies receive has been a hot topic for quite a while around the league. Sam Bradford's recent mega-deal only reiterates one of the main problems that the league will likely try to fix in the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement. Bradford received the most guaranteed money of any rookie ever, an intriguing idea considering Bradford comes into the league with a reputation for being injury prone. Smart Football's Chris Brown offers some of his thoughts on the idea of multi-million dollar contracts in the NFL.
Moving on to college football, Texas enters the 2010 season in an entirely unfamiliar position, without Colt McCoy behind center. While Garrett Gilbert is heralded as the next great Longhorn quarterback he certainly had his issues in the first half of the BCS National Championship Game last season. Nevertheless, Gilbert's solid second half has people in Austin hopeful for continued success in the soon to be revamped Big 12. The recent controversy in Big 12 country is Nebraska's promotional video that calls out Texas. While it seems rather harmless, the Nebraska administration has rescinded the "Beat Texas" section of the video after a bit of over the top criticism from some national media members. Burnt Orange Nation has the latest on this situation and all of the latest news surrounding Longhorn football.
The Big House is getting even bigger, with recent renovations to the Wolverines' stadium, the Maize and Blue will now be able to comfortably seat 109,901. Reclaiming its position as the largest stadium in college football, Michigan Stadium passes Penn State's Beaver Stadium by nearly 3,000 seats. MGOBlog has the most recent news on stadium expansion, recruiting tactics, and entirely inaccurate statements from the media. One enticing nugget from this story is that Corwin Brown, a Notre Dame assistant during the Charlie Weis era and current Patriots secondary coach, slept outside of a recruit's house until he would come to Notre Dame. Only problem was, the recruit never went to Notre Dame.
Late last week, the Texas Rangers made news by sweeping in and trading for Mariners ace Cliff Lee just as he was seemingly ready to pack his bags for New York. The deal gives us our first opportunity for an "MSP On..." post in quite some time. I'm up first, then MSP prospect consultant Jeff Lewandowski brings it home.
Jon Franke
Quick, name the top three teams in baseball according to run differential. You probably got two of them, the Yankees (117) and Rays (105). I would've guessed the Red Sox for third, even after their terrible start, but it is the Texas Rangers, at 74 more runs scored than allowed. That is not to say the Rangers are the third-best team in baseball--the Red Sox' differential is 73 and they play in the AL East. But it is an indication that the Rangers are for real, and, as Jeff says below, the team clearly had room for improvement in run prevention.
It's still early, but at this point it would be a fairly strong, to very strong, upset if the Rangers didn't win the AL West. The second-place Angels are only 4.5 games back, but their Pythagorean record is under .500 (43-48), so they may be due for some regression in the second half.
The story for Seattle would seem to be that you can prevent runs like crazy, but you still have to score some runs to win games (and you don't score many runs with a team OPS+ of 79).
For the rest of the AL, the benefit of Lee going to the Rangers is that he didn't go to the Yankees. As a friend of MSP said when the trade went down, "Looks like the Rangers might have snuck in and gotten Lee... apparently a team tried the unusual move of offering real prospects in a deal competing with the Yankees." While that sentiment may represent the rantings of a somewhat crazed Red Sox fan, it was nice to see a team like the Rangers come up with the big acquisition, it makes baseball much more interesting. And it is probably only a slight overstatement to say that the Yankees would have run away with the AL East (which they still may do) if they could have slotted Lee behind CC Sabathia.
I'll leave the heavy stats lifting for Jeff, but Lee is really, really good, and throws harder than I thought. Using numbers from FanGraphs.com, if he keeps up his current pace and makes 14 more starts this season, it could mean about 4 WAR for the Rangers. Considering the fact that the team's worst starter is replacement level or worse, that's quite a boost in the standings.
Jeff Lewandowski
Sure, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim got to host the All-Star Game this week, but it's their rival Texas Rangers who hold a 4.5 game lead in the AL West at the break. Yes, there is a lot of baseball left to play, but trading for Cliff Lee on Friday made the Rangers a heavy favorite to win the division. Texas is currently third in MLB in runs scored but just middle of the pack (13th) in runs allowed, so a mid-season improvement in preventing runs is probably the best way to improve the Rangers' chances of reaching and winning in the playoffs. Of the players likely to be available this summer, Lee is expected to make the biggest impact in run prevention over the second half. Whether you look at xFIP or SIERA, Cliff Lee is eighth on the MLB leader board for both advanced metrics (3.34 and 3.13, respectively). With 91 strikeouts and only 6 walks Lee possesses a ridiculous 15.17 K/BB ratio, ahead of baseball's second-best Roy Halladay (with a still very impressive 6.74 K/BB) by a Lone Star State-sized gap. And as I was typing that last sentence, Lee was blowing away Albert Pujols with 94 MPH, late-moving heat in the Midsummer Classic. The man has been dealing this year and, despite moving from a great pitcher's park to one of the toughest on hurlers, he should continue to dominate with Texas.
In return Seattle received three solid Double A players (SP Blake Beavan, RP Josh Lueke, and 2B Matthew Lawson) and the real blue-chip, rookie 1B Justin Smoak. Baseball America ranked Smoak as the second-best prospect in the Texas system prior to the season; BP's Kevin Goldstein assigned him 5-star status, ranking him third on the farm and 17th in all of baseball. Smoak earns such high ratings because he projects to be a middle-of-the-order run producer in the future, but with a .670 OPS in 235 at bats, he wasn't doing much to help Texas in 2010. In both the minors and bigs Smoak has shown amazing plate discipline, but he has yet to prove that he can consistently hit for power, and as a switch-hitter he has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching at all levels. I think the Rangers, keen to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, did well to sell high on a very good yet unproven first base prospect in order to obtain one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Ultimately, I really like the Cliff Lee deal for Texas. Seattle made out okay too, but if rumors are true that Yankees prospect Jesus Montero could have been had, I think the Mariners would have been better off pulling the trigger with New York. Montero is a few years younger than Smoak and currently handling Triple A pitching at age 20. I've read that both Montero's bat and raw power rate near a perfect 80 on the scouting scale--I don't know if there is a single player in the majors you can say that about. Although he may be (as Keith Law wrote) a catcher in name only, even at 1B or DH Montero's bat looks as though it could be extremely special. Smoak could end up a star with the bat and glove, but it seems Montero might have been a safer bet to help Seattle turn around an anemic offense, currently last in the AL in team OPS, more than 50 points behind second-to-last Cleveland.
So, we said we'd let others discuss George Steinbrenner's passing, but CNBC had a good piece featuring Diamond Dollars author and frequent MSP contributor Vince Gennaro.
The video takes a look at just what Steinbrenner meant to the Yankees, how he built the brand, and his broader business skills (which were often overlooked). A really interesting take on Steinbrenner's impact on the game and beyond.
